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NWS Flood Advisory (Grayson County)

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Twin Co. Airport , VA

Forecast Last Updated at Saturday, May 26, 2018 at 7:00AM

Warm & Muggy; Showers & T-showers

Tropical moisture will be in full supply this Memorial Day weekend (and well into next week) as southerly flow circulates around high pressure anchored out in the Atlantic. As a result, expect warm and humid conditions giving way to periods of instability showers and thundershowers with occasional heavy downpours. The shower/t-shower activity will be primarily focused during the PM hours – although today the threat begins a little earlier in the morning hours and continues into the PM. Subtropical Storm Alberto will arrive the Gulf of Mexico overnight tonight and make its way to the MS/AL Gulf Coast early next week. Afterwards, it heads to the Tennessee River Valley then to the Mid-Atlantic, keeping our chance of showers and thundershowers elevated through the week.

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Hi: 77 Lo: 65

Mostly cloudy; Showers and thundershowers; South wind 5-10 mph

Hi: 78 Lo: 65

Mostly cloudy; Scattered mostly PM showers & thundershowers; SW wind 5-10 mph

Hi: 76 Lo: 64

Mostly cloudy; Scattered showers and thundershowers; Wind becoming NE 5-10 mph

Hi: 77 Lo: 65

More clouds than sun; Scattered afternoon showers and thundershowers

Hi: 77 Lo: 66

Mostly cloudy; Showers and thundershowers likely by afternoon

Further Out

Thursday - Mostly cloudy; Scattered showers & thundershowers; High in the upper 70s; Low in the upper 60s
Friday - Partly cloudy; Scattered showers and thundershowers; Very warm & muggy; High in the lower 80s; Low in the upper 60s

Forecast Discussion

Moisture-rich southerly flow is circulating around high pressure centered well out in the Atlantic. It supplies us with a deep tropical connection over this holiday weekend. We can expect summer-like instability over the next several days with mainly daytime development of showers and thundershowers. Due to the convective nature of the precipitation, we aren’t dealing with all-day washout rains – there will be of dry periods between showers. But we ought to make back-up plans for outdoor activities.

A short-wave disturbance embedded within the southerly flow cruises up from the south today, serving to enhance convection across the mountains. With this mechanism in place, today may be the wettest day of the holiday weekend.

The only front on our radar is a shallow front that will approach from the north early next week. But it will have a difficult time making it this far south. Regardless of its progress, the atmosphere remains juicy with deep southerly flow overhead, keeping at least scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each day this forecast cycle.

Subtropical Storm Alberto arrives in the Gulf of Mexico tonight and will follow a path towards the MS/AL/FL coastline. Landfall is forecast for Tuesday morning. Its remnants will move north toward the Tennessee River Valley then head east toward the Mid-Atlantic late next week. As it moves closer, we’ll likely see an uptick in showers and thunderstorms next week


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